IMF World Economic Outlook: April 2025
Key Risks and Insights at a Critical Juncture
Executive Summary
- Global growth projections for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward due to policy shifts, trade tensions, and increased uncertainty.
- Inflation is expected to decline further, but at a slower pace than previously forecast, with some countries seeing upward revisions.
- Downside risks dominate the outlook: trade wars, policy uncertainty, and financial market volatility threaten both short- and long-term growth.
- Emerging markets face heightened vulnerability to capital outflows and abrupt tightening of global financial conditions.
- Policy recommendations: The IMF calls for international cooperation, stable trade environments, and reforms to support labor force participation and productivity.
At a Glance: The global economy is at a critical juncture. Policy choices made now will shape growth, stability, and resilience for years to come.
Key Charts & Visuals
Global GDP Growth (2023–2030)
Select a country or region to view projected annual GDP growth rates from the IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2025. This interactive chart highlights the latest economic outlook and revisions for major economies and the world.
Summary: The chart above shows projected GDP growth rates for major economies and the world from 2023 to 2030. The data reveals that global growth is expected to remain moderate, with most advanced economies experiencing a slowdown in 2024–2025 before stabilizing. The United States and Canada show a gradual decline in growth rates, while the Euro Area (Germany, France, Italy) sees a dip in 2024 followed by a slow recovery. China and India maintain higher growth rates compared to advanced economies, but their growth also trends downward over the period. Japan and the United Kingdom display relatively low but stable growth. Overall, the chart highlights persistent global economic uncertainty, with emerging markets outpacing advanced economies but facing their own headwinds. The outlook underscores the importance of policy stability and international cooperation to support sustained growth.
2025 GDP Growth by Country/Region
Compare projected 2025 GDP growth rates for major economies, grouped by region, based on the IMF World Economic Outlook and the Global Business Complexity Index focus countries.
EMEAAmericasAPAC
Summary: The bar chart above compares projected 2025 GDP growth rates for major economies across three regions: EMEA, Americas, and APAC. In the EMEA region, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom show modest growth, with Germany and France both below 1% and the UK slightly above. Italy and Greece perform better, with growth rates above 1%, while Denmark also shows a positive outlook. In the Americas, the United States and Canada are projected to have moderate growth, both under 2%, reflecting a slowdown from previous years. Brazil and Argentina stand out in the region, with Argentina expected to rebound strongly above 3% and Brazil maintaining steady growth above 2%. In the APAC region, China leads with the highest growth rate among major economies, though its rate is gradually declining compared to previous years. Japan and Australia show lower but stable growth, while Indonesia and India (not shown but typically included) continue to outperform with robust rates above 5%. Singapore and Hong Kong maintain moderate growth. Overall, the chart highlights the divergence between advanced and emerging economies, with emerging markets in APAC and Latin America generally outpacing advanced economies in EMEA and North America. The data underscores the resilience of emerging markets and the ongoing challenges faced by advanced economies amid global uncertainty.
- Inflation Trends:
- Risk Factors: Trade TensionsPolicy UncertaintyFinancial Volatility
Summary: The line chart above displays projected inflation rates for major economies from 2023 to 2030. The data shows that inflation peaked in most countries in 2023, following global shocks, and is expected to decline steadily through 2025 before stabilizing near central bank targets. The United States and Canada see inflation falling from above 4% in 2023 to just above 2% by 2027, reflecting successful monetary tightening. In the Euro Area, Germany, France, and Italy also experience a sharp drop in inflation, with rates converging toward 2% by 2026. The United Kingdom, after a high of over 7% in 2023, returns to target by 2027. Japan maintains low and stable inflation throughout, while Australia and other advanced economies follow a similar downward trend. Notably, emerging markets and some smaller economies show more volatility but also trend downward. Overall, the chart highlights the normalization of inflation after recent spikes, with most advanced economies expected to achieve price stability by 2026–2027. Regional differences narrow over time, but some countries may face persistent inflation risks due to structural factors or external shocks.
Summary: The icons above represent three key risk factors currently shaping the global economic outlook: Trade Tensions, Policy Uncertainty, and Financial Volatility. Trade tensions have escalated in 2024–2025, with new tariffs and retaliatory measures between major economies, especially the US, China, and the EU, leading to disruptions in global supply chains and increased costs for businesses. Policy uncertainty remains high as governments adjust fiscal and monetary policies in response to inflation, debt, and geopolitical risks. Recent elections and leadership changes in several countries have resulted in shifts in trade, tax, and regulatory policies, making it harder for businesses to plan long-term. Financial volatility has increased due to fluctuating interest rates, currency swings, and capital outflows from emerging markets, driven by tighter global financial conditions and concerns over sovereign debt. Together, these risk factors contribute to a more unpredictable and challenging environment for global growth and investment in 2025.
Policy & Strategic Recommendations
- Promote international cooperation to reduce uncertainty and foster stable trade relations.
- Implement structural reforms to boost productivity and labor force participation, especially among older workers and women.
- Monitor and manage financial vulnerabilities, particularly in emerging markets.
- Prepare for demographic shifts and fiscal sustainability challenges.