Risk and Insurance Mitigation Solutions
Leveraging Expertise to Navigate Geopolitical Uncertainty
At Marsh, our teams help organizations measure, manage, and minimize risks while anticipating future challenges and seizing opportunities.
We provide specialist advice and solutions to companies and lenders, enabling them to protect assets, seek to enhance investment returns, and unlock growth opportunities across industries and geographies.
| Risk Overview | Impacted Sectors | Key Marsh Offerings |
|---|---|---|
Shifting global trade flows The global trade architecture is changing, and businesses need to understand the implications of this shift to be best positioned for growth. | Organizations with long investment horizons and supply chains or key supplier dependencies, including energy, manufacturing, and infrastructure. |
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A breakdown in systemic constraints and less predictable leaders While scenario planning is vital, most organizations tend to simply forecast “rational” outcomes based on structural factors and do not fully consider the impact of individual leaders. | Organizations in sectors that are most at risk or exposed to unpredictable geopolitical developments, including energy, mining, marine, and aviation. |
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Implications of record public debt levels Worldwide public debt and business insolvency rates are likely to remain elevated in 2025. This fragile structure is not well-equipped to absorb any potential geopolitical shocks. | Organizations with strained balance sheets or exposure to high debt or deficit countries or counterparties may be most at risk. This includes the construction, infrastructure, hospitality, and transport sectors. |
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Expanding use of countervailing measures Export controls or trade bans are increasingly being imposed on specific companies in response to trade policies of other governments, potentially imperilling supply chains. | Multinational organizations in potentially politically sensitive sectors, such as manufacturing, textiles, high-tech, automotive, critical minerals, and defense. |
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Optionality While optionality has become a key strategy for managing unstable geopolitical conditions and commodity markets, the approach can also exacerbate political risks. | Sectors exposed to geopolitical shocks and commodity market dynamics, such as energy, mining, and finance. |
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Political risks to carbon credits and debt-for-nature swaps In 2024, carbon credit markets (CCMs) and debt-for-nature swaps (DFNSs) gained legitimacy. Yet, non-delivery remains a core risk for buyers. | Companies buying carbon credits in a compliance (e.g., CORSIA, ETS) or voluntary market, or investors in DFNSs. |
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Climate policy and regulatory obligations Meeting compliance obligations can be complex and costly. As political priorities shift, new uncertainties may surround the implementation timeline and permanence of climate regulations. | Organizations trading soft commodities (e.g., coffee, beef, palm oil), as well as energy, industrial manufacturing, and construction sectors. |
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